Before you run projections, you need a realistic standard. Not fantasy, hype, or lucky one-year returns. A real long-term standard.
The market has historically done around 9% to 10% annually over long stretches. That is your baseline. That is what “average” looks like. (S&P 500 20-year CAGR is 9.05%)
So if you are picking individual stocks and only matching the market, that is not impressive. It means you are taking on more effort, more complexity, and more responsibility without getting paid much extra for it.
A more useful framework looks like this:
10% per year (multi-year average)
Market-like. Solid, but average.
15% per year (multi-year average)
Somewhat good. This usually reflects better-than-average decision-making and a better process.
20% per year (multi-year average)
This is the range of a genuinely competent investor. Someone who can analyze businesses properly, think through projections, probabilities, assess management, and make decisions with structure and consistency.
25%+ per year (multi-year average)
This is where things start to get rare. Now you are talking about very strong execution, serious skill, focused effort, and a process that is actually giving you a real edge.
Could someone do 30%+ over time? Yes, especially from a smaller base, with skill and some luck. But that is not the number you should casually assume. The goal is not to build a fantasy spreadsheet. The goal is to build a sustainable process. (The Buffett Partnership Ltd. (1956–1969) achieved a phenomenal compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.5%.)
That is why this calculator matters.
Because once you understand what 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% actually mean over 10 to 15 years, you stop treating investing like entertainment.
You start treating it like a serious skill.